Speaking at the launch of the survey's results at the Westcliff Hotel in Johannesburg, independent economist advisor Roelof Botha said despite the country's return to positive growth in the third quarter of 2009, the recovery will be slow as the economy needs at least another quarter to fully recover.
“From an economic perspective, the survey results suggest that it will be wise to exercise caution with so-called exit strategies,” Botha said.
An estimated one million people have lost their jobs during 2009 in SA, and many local companies have gone out of business during the same period as the global recession mercilessly wreaked havoc throughout the planet.
The MasterCard Worldwide Index Consumer Confidence, which is said to be the region's most comprehensive consumer confidence survey, was based on five economic indicators, namely economy, unemployment, stock market, regular income and quality of life.
However, despite the index's downward trend, Botha said the consumer confidence was still positive as it has reached beyond 50, signalling a move towards greater optimism for the future.
“The employment Indicator is under pressure, but regular income and stock market remain resilient,” he said.
“High crime levels, infrastructure deficiencies, rising unemployment, uncertainty over extent of economic recovery, uncertainty over the reliability of electricity supply, inefficiencies in public service delivery are the factors exerting downward pressure on the quality of life index,” he explained.
On the contrary, the quality of life should be enhanced in one way or another by factors such as lower inflation, lower interest rates, economic recovery, commodity price recovery, progress with transport infrastructure upgrading, and perceived benefits of the 2010 FIFA World Cup, according to the MasterCard survey.
“Many people in SA still don't know the importance of soccer,” Botha said.
“Soccer is almost a way of life in many countries and it is big business. The world won't believe it in June when they will see world-class soccer being played in SA's first-class infrastructure.
“Can you believe the viewership? It is amazingly huge, so it is should be a wonderful marketing opportunity for companies. Besides, we are guaranteed that at least half-million tourists will visit here. So it is a big bonus.”
Furthermore, the survey found that Johannesburg has ousted Durban as SA's most confident city with a positive score of 70.6 - well above the country's overall confidence of 59.8 and 4.1 higher than six months ago.
“Due to the decline last year in real personal disposable income of SA households, the first in almost two decades, combined with a general global slump in tourism, both Durban and Cape Town experienced declines in air travel passenger arrivals during 2009,” Botha said, adding that Durban has taken a significant knock in loss of tourism revenues.
Durban scored 50.4, the least confident city, while Cape Town got 57.1.
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